Club Friendlies 3
Aug 4, 2026 2.00pm
1
3
HT : 0 2
FT True BG Stadium
  • 74' yellowcard
  • 80' yellowcard
  • L. James 83' goal
  • goal Emiliano Buendía 12'
  • goal Victor Lindelöf 31'
  • goal Boubacar Kamara 62'

BG Pathum United vs Aston Villa - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

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The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

BG Pathum United

All competitions

Aston Villa

All competitions
Club Friendlies 3
Last game
Jul 28, 2026 7.30pm
Aston Villa 2 - 4 Real Sociedad

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a BG Pathum United win with a probability of 38.29%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 36.41% and a draw had a probability of 25.29%.

The most likely scoreline for a BG Pathum United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.73%) and 2-0 (5.54%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (8.39%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.

Result

BG Pathum United 38.29% (-0.03)
Draw 25.29% (-0.04)
Aston Villa 36.41% (+0.05)

Both Teams to Score: 

58.09% (+0.06)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.68% (+0.06)
Under 1.5 21.32% (-0.06)
Over 2.5 56.71% (+0.06)
Under 2.5 43.29% (-0.06)
Over 3.5 34.07% (+0.08)
Under 3.5 65.93% (-0.07)
Over 4.5 19.77% (+0.06)
Under 4.5 80.23% (-0.05)

First Half Winner

BG Pathum United 32.1%
Draw 39.2% (+0.02)
Aston Villa 28.69% (-0.01)

Team To Score First

BG Pathum United 49.81% (+0.02)
No Goal 5.9% (-0.02)
Aston Villa 44.29% (+0.01)

Corners

Over 8 59.34% (-0.02)
Equal 8 11.41%
Under 8 29.25% (+0.02)
Over 9 47.56% (-0.01)
Equal 9 11.78%
Under 9 40.66% (+0.01)
Over 10.5 36.42% (-0.02)
Under 10.5 63.58% (+0.02)

BG Pathum United Goals

Over 1.5 41.44% (+0.04)
Under 1.5 58.56% (-0.04)
Over 2.5 18.25% (+0.02)
Under 2.5 81.75% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 6.71%
Under 3.5 93.29%

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5 71.41% (+0.05)
Under 0.5 28.59% (-0.06)
Over 1.5 39.54% (+0.05)
Under 1.5 60.46% (-0.05)
Over 2.5 17.07% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 82.93% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 6.14% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 93.86% (-0.02)

Score analysis

BG Pathum United 38.31%
Draw 25.29%
Aston Villa 36.42%
BG Pathum United
2-1 @ 8.54%
1-0 @ 7.73% (-0.01)
2-0 @ 5.54%
3-1 @ 4.2% (+0.01)
3-0 @ 3.02% (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.86% (+0.01)
Other @ 6.42% (+0.01)
Total : 38.31%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.42% (-0.01)
2-2 @ 6.22%
0-0 @ 5.9% (-0.02)
3-3 @ 1.46%
Other @ 0.29% (-0.02)
Total : 25.29%
Aston Villa
1-2 @ 8.39%
0-1 @ 7.71%
0-2 @ 5%
1-3 @ 3.88% (+0.01)
2-3 @ 2.89% (+0.03)
0-3 @ 2.7%
Other @ 5.85% (+0.02)
Total : 36.42%