Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Bull Salzburg win with a probability of 51.51%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 26.06% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Red Bull Salzburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.87%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 1-2 (6.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Red Bull Salzburg would win this match.