Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolfsberger win with a probability of 51.87%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 24.46% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wolfsberger win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.71%) and 2-0 (8.67%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 0-1 (6.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wolfsberger would win this match.