Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 44.78%. A win for Union had a probability of 28.1% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (8.54%). The likeliest Union win was 0-1 (9.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.