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Argentine Primera Division | Gameweek 21
Jun 22, 2023 at 11.45pm UK
Estadio Monumental Antonio Vespucio Liberti

River Plate
3 - 1
Instituto

de la Cruz (34'), Fernandez (50'), Beltran (84')
Diaz (76')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Rodriguez (1')
Mosevich (17'), Roffo (26'), Linares (42'), Franco (79')
Mosevich (46')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Argentine Primera Division clash between River Plate and Instituto, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

River Plate

All competitions
Argentine Primera Division
Last Game: River Plate 1-0 Defensa
Sunday, June 18 at 1am in Argentine Primera Division

Instituto

All competitions
Last Game: Instituto 1-1 Racing
Tuesday, June 13 at 1.45am in Argentine Primera Division

We said: River Plate 2-0 Instituto

 River's last three games at El Monumental have ended in one-goal victories, and while Demichelis's men may not be blowing teams away, they should secure a routine win over Instituto. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 76.44%. A draw had a probability of 15.8% and a win for Instituto had a probability of 7.72%.

The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.58%) and 3-0 (11.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.44%), while for a Instituto win it was 0-1 (3.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.

Result
River PlateDrawInstituto
76.44% (-6.814 -6.81) 15.83% (4.007 4.01) 7.72% (2.8081 2.81)
Both teams to score 40.26% (2.059 2.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.78% (-7.115 -7.12)44.22% (7.116 7.12)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.41% (-7.296 -7.3)66.6% (7.298 7.3)
River Plate Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.23% (-3.166 -3.17)9.77% (3.1671 3.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
67.5% (-7.943 -7.94)32.5% (7.944 7.94)
Instituto Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
44.62% (3.717 3.72)55.38% (-3.716 -3.72)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
11.9% (2.076 2.08)88.1% (-2.076 -2.08)
Score Analysis
    River Plate 76.43%
    Instituto 7.72%
    Draw 15.83%
River PlateDrawInstituto
2-0 @ 14.63% (0.22 0.22)
1-0 @ 12.58% (1.98 1.98)
3-0 @ 11.34% (-1.71 -1.71)
2-1 @ 8.65% (1.068 1.07)
3-1 @ 6.7% (-0.162 -0.16)
4-0 @ 6.59% (-2.271 -2.27)
4-1 @ 3.9% (-0.767 -0.77)
5-0 @ 3.07% (-1.75 -1.75)
3-2 @ 1.98% (0.175 0.18)
5-1 @ 1.81% (-0.721 -0.72)
6-0 @ 1.19% (-0.992 -0.99)
4-2 @ 1.15% (-0.075 -0.08)
Other @ 2.83%
Total : 76.43%
1-1 @ 7.44% (1.858 1.86)
0-0 @ 5.41% (1.508 1.51)
2-2 @ 2.56% (0.562 0.56)
Other @ 0.43%
Total : 15.83%
0-1 @ 3.2% (1.145 1.15)
1-2 @ 2.2% (0.73 0.73)
0-2 @ 0.95% (0.405 0.41)
Other @ 1.38%
Total : 7.72%

How you voted: River Plate vs Instituto

River Plate
84.6%
Draw
0.0%
Instituto
15.4%
13
rhs 2.0
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