Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Instituto win with a probability of 43.7%. A draw had a probability of 29.4% and a win for Belgrano had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Instituto win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.03%) and 2-1 (8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.16%), while for a Belgrano win it was 0-1 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Instituto in this match.