Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 47.23%. A draw had a probability of 28.3% and a win for Belgrano had a probability of 24.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.82%) and 2-1 (8.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.84%), while for a Belgrano win it was 0-1 (9.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.