Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Gameweek 4
Nov 17, 2026 1.00pm
Amaan Stadium

Tanzania vs Nigeria - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Tanzania

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 2.00pm
Tanzania 0 - 2 Guinea-Bissau

Nigeria

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 5.00pm
Nigeria 2 - 1 Madagascar

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Nigeria win with a probability of 44.89%. A win for Tanzania has a probability of 27.59% and a draw has a probability of 27.51%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nigeria win is 0-1 with a probability of 13.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.53%) and 0-2 (8.33%). The likeliest Tanzania win is 1-0 (9.72%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.54%).

Result

Tanzania 27.59% ▼ (-0.22)
Draw 27.51% ▼ (-0.75)
Nigeria 44.89% ▲ (+1.00)

Both Teams to Score: 

44.54% ▲ (+1.52)

Goals

Over 1.5 66.69% ▲ (+1.93)
Under 1.5 33.31% ▼ (-1.93)
Over 2.5 41.09% ▲ (+2.20)
Under 2.5 58.91% ▼ (-2.20)
Over 3.5 21.06% ▲ (+2.04)
Under 3.5 78.94% ▼ (-2.00)
Over 4.5 11.38% ▲ (+1.40)
Under 4.5 88.62% ▼ (-1.40)

First Half Winner

Tanzania 20.37% ▲ (+0.50)
Draw 45.7% ▼ (-0.08)
Nigeria 33.93% ▼ (-0.43)

Team To Score First

Tanzania 36.85% ▲ (+0.61)
No Goal 10.52% ▼ (-0.83)
Nigeria 52.63% ▲ (+0.24)

Corners

Over 8 28.66% ▲ (+3.36)
Equal 8 10.91% ▲ (+0.61)
Under 8 60.43% ▼ (-3.97)
Over 9 19.93% ▲ (+2.59)
Equal 9 8.73% ▲ (+0.77)
Under 9 71.34% ▼ (-3.35)
Over 10.5 13.43% ▲ (+1.85)
Under 10.5 86.57% ▼ (-1.86)

Tanzania Goals

Over 1.5 24.58% ▲ (+0.97)
Under 1.5 75.42% ▼ (-0.97)
Over 2.5 7.56% ▲ (+0.52)
Under 2.5 92.44% ▼ (-0.52)
Over 3.5 2.08% ▲ (+0.24)
Under 3.5 97.92% ▼ (-0.24)

Nigeria Goals

Over 0.5 71.48% ▲ (+1.41)
Under 0.5 28.52% ▼ (-1.41)
Over 1.5 37.62% ▲ (+2.01)
Under 1.5 62.38% ▼ (-2.01)
Over 2.5 15.54% ▲ (+1.35)
Under 2.5 84.46% ▼ (-1.36)
Over 3.5 5.14% ▲ (+0.64)
Under 3.5 94.86% ▼ (-0.65)

Score analysis

Tanzania 27.6%
Draw 27.52%
Nigeria 44.9%
Tanzania
1-0 @ 9.72% ▼ (-0.56)
2-1 @ 6.19% ▲ (+0.05)
2-0 @ 4.72% ▼ (-0.12)
3-1 @ 2.04% ▲ (+0.13)
3-0 @ 1.51% ▼ (-0.10)
3-2 @ 1.35% ▲ (+0.16)
Other @ 2.07% ▲ (+0.24)
Total : 27.6%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.54% ▼ (-0.29)
0-0 @ 10.52% ▼ (-0.83)
2-2 @ 3.87% ▲ (+0.27)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 27.52%
Nigeria
0-1 @ 13.09% ▼ (-0.50)
1-2 @ 8.53% ▲ (+0.12)
0-2 @ 8.33% ▲ (+0.14)
0-3 @ 3.8% ▲ (+0.08)
1-3 @ 3.78% ▲ (+0.27)
2-3 @ 2.24% ▲ (+0.27)
Other @ 5.13% ▲ (+0.64)
Total : 44.9%

Head to Head

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Gameweek 3
Nov 13, 2026 4.00pm
3
1
HT : 1 1
FT
  • Alhassan Yusuf 2' goal
  • Alhassan Yusuf 12' yellowcard
  • Tolu Arokodare 52' goal
  • Tolu Arokodare 60' goal
  • goal Alphonce Msanga 32'
Africa Cup of Nations Gameweek 1
Dec 23, 2025 5.30pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Complexe Sportif de Fès
  • Semi Ajayi 36' goal
  • Ademola Lookman 52' goal
  • Ademola Lookman 58' yellowcard
  • goal Charles M'Mombwa 50'