Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rwanda win with a probability of 37.94%. A win for Mozambique had a probability of 31.95% and a draw had a probability of 30.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rwanda win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.53%) and 2-1 (7.38%). The likeliest Mozambique win was 0-1 (12.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.