Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mozambique win with a probability of 41.48%. A draw had a probability of 30.2% and a win for Madagascar had a probability of 28.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mozambique win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.55%) and 1-2 (7.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.32%), while for a Madagascar win it was 1-0 (11.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Madagascar would win this match.

Result
Madagascar	Draw	Mozambique
28.37% ( 0.07)	30.15% ( -0.49)	41.48% ( 0.42)

Both teams to score 40.3% (

1.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

33.41% (

1.4)

66.59% (

-1.39)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

15.02% (

0.94)

84.99% (

-0.94)

Madagascar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.08% (

0.87)

40.93% (

-0.87)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.51% (

0.77)

77.49% (

-0.77)

Mozambique Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.22% (

0.98)

31.78% (

-0.98)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.79% (

1.11)

68.21% (

-1.11)

Score Analysis

Madagascar 28.36%

Mozambique 41.47%

Draw 30.15%

Madagascar	Draw	Mozambique
1-0 @ 11.61% ( -0.33) 2-1 @ 5.95% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 5.19% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 1.77% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 1.55% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.02% ( 0.07) Other @ 1.28% Total : 28.36%	1-1 @ 13.32% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 13% ( -0.69) 2-2 @ 3.41% ( 0.17) Other @ 0.41% Total : 30.15%	0-1 @ 14.9% ( -0.38) 0-2 @ 8.55% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 7.64% ( 0.2) 0-3 @ 3.27% ( 0.1) 1-3 @ 2.92% ( 0.15) 2-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.1) 0-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.97% Total : 41.47%