Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ghana win with a probability of 61.21%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Madagascar had a probability of 14.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ghana win was 0-1 with a probability of 17.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.79%) and 1-2 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.79%), while for a Madagascar win it was 1-0 (6.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.