Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ghana win with a probability of 51.11%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Madagascar had a probability of 24.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ghana win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.53%) and 2-0 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.82%), while for a Madagascar win it was 0-1 (7.33%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ghana would win this match.