Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Gameweek 4
Nov 17, 2026 7.00pm
Stade Amahoro

Rwanda vs Mali - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Rwanda

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 5.00pm
Rwanda 3 - 1 Liberia

Mali

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 8.00pm
Mali 3 - 1 Cape Verde

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Mali win with a probability of 36.48%. A win for Rwanda has a probability of 32.22% and a draw has a probability of 31.27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win is 0-1 with a probability of 12.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (7.04%) and 1-2 (6.88%). The likeliest Rwanda win is 1-0 (11.71%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 0-0 (13.72%).

Result

Rwanda 32.22% ▼ (-4.75)
Draw 31.27% ▲ (+0.67)
Mali 36.48% ▲ (+4.09)

Both Teams to Score: 

39.85% ▼ (-0.70)

Goals

Over 1.5 61.89% ▼ (-0.90)
Under 1.5 38.11% ▲ (+0.90)
Over 2.5 35.42% ▼ (-0.54)
Under 2.5 64.58% ▲ (+0.54)
Over 3.5 16.98% ▼ (-0.50)
Under 3.5 83.02% ▲ (+0.50)
Over 4.5 8.71% ▼ (-0.26)
Under 4.5 91.29% ▲ (+0.27)

First Half Winner

Rwanda 30.68% ▼ (-2.54)
Draw 46.2% ▼ (-0.31)
Mali 23.12% ▲ (+2.86)

Team To Score First

Rwanda 48.06% ▼ (-3.02)
No Goal 13.72% ▲ (+0.62)
Mali 38.22% ▲ (+2.41)

Corners

Over 8 26.26% ▼ (-5.26)
Equal 8 10.11% ▼ (-1.03)
Under 8 63.63% ▲ (+6.29)
Over 9 18.38% ▼ (-4.00)
Equal 9 7.89% ▼ (-1.27)
Under 9 73.74% ▲ (+5.26)
Over 10.5 12.62% ▼ (-2.79)
Under 10.5 87.38% ▲ (+2.79)

Rwanda Goals

Over 1.5 26.11% ▼ (-3.70)
Under 1.5 73.89% ▲ (+3.69)
Over 2.5 8.74% ▼ (-1.76)
Under 2.5 91.26% ▲ (+1.77)
Over 3.5 2.72% ▼ (-0.67)
Under 3.5 97.28% ▲ (+0.68)

Mali Goals

Over 0.5 63.81% ▲ (+3.00)
Under 0.5 36.19% ▼ (-3.00)
Over 1.5 29.2% ▲ (+2.76)
Under 1.5 70.8% ▼ (-2.77)
Over 2.5 10.6% ▲ (+1.49)
Under 2.5 89.4% ▼ (-1.48)
Over 3.5 3.09% ▲ (+0.53)
Under 3.5 96.91% ▼ (-0.54)

Score analysis

Rwanda 32.22%
Draw 31.28%
Mali 36.48%
Rwanda
1-0 @ 11.71% ▼ (-0.97)
2-1 @ 6.41% ▼ (-0.60)
2-0 @ 6.06% ▼ (-1.31)
3-1 @ 2.19% ▼ (-0.44)
3-0 @ 2.14% ▼ (-0.59)
3-2 @ 1.17% ▼ (-0.13)
Other @ 2.54% ▼ (-0.74)
Total : 32.22%
Draw
0-0 @ 13.72% ▲ (+0.62)
1-1 @ 13.35%
2-2 @ 3.51% ▼ (-0.06)
Other @ 0.18% ▲ (+0.07)
Total : 31.28%
Mali
0-1 @ 12.66% ▲ (+1.28)
0-2 @ 7.04% ▲ (+0.92)
1-2 @ 6.88% ▲ (+0.54)
0-3 @ 3.01% ▲ (+0.61)
1-3 @ 2.59% ▲ (+0.27)
2-3 @ 1.39% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 2.91% ▲ (+0.46)
Total : 36.48%

Head to Head

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Gameweek 3
Nov 13, 2026 7.00pm
3
2
HT : 1 1
FT Stade 26 Mars
  • Kamory Doumbia 43' goal
  • Moussa Yeo 63' goal
  • Mamadou Camara 84' goal
  • Mohamadou Kanté 90'+4' yellowcard
  • goal Jojea Kwizera 29'
  • yellowcard Jojea Kwizera 32'
  • yellowcard Leroy Mickels 45'+2'
  • goal Phanuel Kavita 54'
World Cup Qualifying - Africa
Nov 11, 2021 4.00pm
0
3
HT : 0 2
FT
  • Djihad Bizimana 7' redcard
  • Emmanuel Imanishimwe 72' yellowcard
  • goal Moussa Djenepo 19'
  • goal Ibrahima Kone 21'
  • yellowcard Ibrahima Kone 48'
  • yellowcard Mohamed Camara 70'
  • goal Kalifa Coulibaly 87'
  • yellowcard Kalifa Coulibaly 88'
World Cup Qualifying - Africa
Sep 1, 2021 8.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Adama Traore 19' goal
  • Lassana Coulibaly 35' yellowcard
  • Hamari Traore 54' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Yannick Mukunzi 17'