International Friendlies
Oct 5, 2026 5.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Stade Amahoro
  • Djihad Bizimana 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Amos Wanjala 78'
  • yellowcard Michael Kibwage 85'
  • yellowcard Marvin Omondi 88'
  • yellowcard Ryan Ogam 90'+4'
  • yellowcard 90'+4'

Rwanda vs Kenya - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Rwanda

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last game
Jun 9, 2026 5.00pm
Tanzania 0 - 0 Rwanda

Kenya

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last game
Jun 7, 2026 2.00pm
Kenya 4 - 0 Lesotho

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Rwanda win with a probability of 51.54%. A draw has a probability of 25.1% and a win for Kenya has a probability of 23.36%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rwanda win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (9.72%) and 2-1 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.27%) , while for a Kenya win it is 0-1 (6.69%).

Result

Rwanda 51.54%
Draw 25.1%
Kenya 23.36%

Both Teams to Score: 

48.59%

Goals

Over 1.5 71.88%
Under 1.5 28.12%
Over 2.5 47.75%
Under 2.5 52.25%
Over 3.5 26.65%
Under 3.5 73.35%
Over 4.5 15.56%
Under 4.5 84.44%

First Half Winner

Rwanda 41.38%
Draw 42.8%
Kenya 15.82%

Team To Score First

Rwanda 64.02%
No Goal 8.26%
Kenya 27.72%

Corners

Over 8 19.68%
Equal 8 8.62%
Under 8 71.7%
Over 9 13.43%
Equal 9 6.26%
Under 9 80.32%
Over 10.5 9.13%
Under 10.5 90.87%

Rwanda Goals

Over 1.5 45.73%
Under 1.5 54.27%
Over 2.5 20.7%
Under 2.5 79.3%
Over 3.5 7.65%
Under 3.5 92.35%

Kenya Goals

Over 0.5 56.32%
Under 0.5 43.68%
Over 1.5 24.67%
Under 1.5 75.33%
Over 2.5 9.23%
Under 2.5 90.77%
Over 3.5 2.9%
Under 3.5 97.1%

Score analysis

Rwanda 51.56%
Draw 25.1%
Kenya 23.36%
Rwanda
1-0 @ 13.19%
2-0 @ 9.72%
2-1 @ 9.12%
3-0 @ 5.07%
3-1 @ 4.57%
3-2 @ 2.43%
Other @ 7.46%
Total : 51.56%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.27%
0-0 @ 8.26%
2-2 @ 4.4%
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 25.1%
Kenya
0-1 @ 6.69%
1-2 @ 5.48%
0-2 @ 3.13%
1-3 @ 2.13%
2-3 @ 1.79%
0-3 @ 1.43%
Other @ 2.71%
Total : 23.36%

Head to Head

World Cup Qualifying - Africa
Nov 15, 2021 1.00pm
2
1
HT : 2 0
FT
  • Michael Olunga 2' goal
  • Richard Odada 15' goal
  • Richard Odada 49' yellowcard
  • Joseph Okumu 53' yellowcard
  • James Saruni 90' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Olivier Niyonzima 49'
  • yellowcard Denis Rukundo 57'
  • goal Olivier Niyonzima 66'
World Cup Qualifying - Africa
Sep 5, 2021 2.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT
  • Abdul Rwatubyaye 20' goal
  • Jacques Tuyisenge 30' yellowcard
  • Haruna Niyonzima 83' yellowcard
  • goal Michael Olunga 9'
  • yellowcard Richard Odada 87'