Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Gameweek 2
Oct 1, 2026 5.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Serhou Guirassy 32' goal
  • Mohamed Camara 64' yellowcard
  • yellowcard M. Bajaber 16'

Guinea vs Kenya - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Guinea

All competitions

Kenya

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea win with a probability of 37.06%. A win for Kenya had a probability of 34.16% and a draw had a probability of 28.74%.

The most likely scoreline for a Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.58%) and 2-0 (6.04%). The likeliest Kenya win was 0-1 (11.22%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.

Result

Guinea 37.06% ▲ (+0.99)
Draw 28.74% ▲ (+0.68)
Kenya 34.16% ▼ (-1.74)

Both Teams to Score: 

45.95% ▼ (-1.73)

Goals

Over 1.5 66.84% ▼ (-1.65)
Under 1.5 33.16% ▲ (+1.64)
Over 2.5 42.56% ▼ (-1.76)
Under 2.5 57.44% ▲ (+1.76)
Over 3.5 22.4% ▼ (-0.66)
Under 3.5 77.6% ▲ (+0.65)
Over 4.5 12.03% ▼ (-0.31)
Under 4.5 87.97% ▲ (+0.30)

First Half Winner

Guinea 24.25% ▲ (+1.24)
Draw 50.84% ▼ (-0.07)
Kenya 24.91% ▼ (-1.17)

Team To Score First

Guinea 46.61% ▲ (+0.29)
No Goal 10.99% ▲ (+0.63)
Kenya 42.4% ▼ (-0.90)

Corners

Over 8 18.17% ▼ (-0.16)
Equal 8 7.53% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 8 74.3% ▲ (+0.13)
Over 9 12.82% ▼ (-0.18)
Equal 9 5.35% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 9 81.83% ▲ (+0.16)
Over 10.5 9.18% ▼ (-0.18)
Under 10.5 90.82% ▲ (+0.18)

Guinea Goals

Over 1.5 33.23% ▲ (+0.15)
Under 1.5 66.77% ▼ (-0.16)
Over 2.5 13.5% ▲ (+0.25)
Under 2.5 86.5% ▼ (-0.24)
Over 3.5 4.42% ▲ (+0.13)
Under 3.5 95.58% ▼ (-0.13)

Kenya Goals

Over 0.5 64.73% ▼ (-1.76)
Under 0.5 35.27% ▲ (+1.77)
Over 1.5 30.13% ▼ (-1.94)
Under 1.5 69.87% ▲ (+1.94)
Over 2.5 10.96% ▼ (-1.11)
Under 2.5 89.04% ▲ (+1.11)
Over 3.5 3.21% ▼ (-0.27)
Under 3.5 96.79% ▲ (+0.28)

Score analysis

Guinea 37.07%
Draw 28.75%
Kenya 34.16%
Guinea
1-0 @ 10.93% ▲ (+0.75)
2-1 @ 7.58% ▼ (-0.17)
2-0 @ 6.04% ▲ (+0.28)
3-1 @ 3.32% ▲ (+0.03)
3-0 @ 3.02% ▲ (+0.05)
3-2 @ 1.91% ▲ (+0.04)
Other @ 4.27% ▲ (+0.06)
Total : 37.07%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.48% ▲ (+0.07)
0-0 @ 10.99% ▲ (+0.63)
2-2 @ 4.3% ▼ (-0.05)
Other @ 0.15% ▲ (+0.06)
Total : 28.75%
Kenya
0-1 @ 11.22% ▲ (+0.26)
1-2 @ 7.22% ▼ (-0.55)
0-2 @ 5.74% ▼ (-0.25)
1-3 @ 2.76% ▼ (-0.31)
0-3 @ 2.35% ▼ (-0.42)
2-3 @ 1.81% ▼ (-0.14)
Other @ 3.06% ▼ (-0.34)
Total : 34.16%