International Friendlies
Jun 4, 2026 2.00pm
Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium

Lesotho vs Kenya - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Lesotho

All competitions

Kenya

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last game
Jun 3, 2026 1.30pm
Kyrgyzstan 0 - 0 Kenya

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Kenya win with a probability of 46.85%. A win for Lesotho has a probability of 26.59% and a draw has a probability of 26.52%.

The most likely scoreline for a Kenya win is 0-1 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.63%) and 0-2 (8.14%). The likeliest Lesotho win is 1-0 (8.36%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.16%).

Result

Lesotho 26.59% (-0.04)
Draw 26.52% (+0.36)
Kenya 46.85% (-0.37)

Both Teams to Score: 

49.21% (-1.80)

Goals

Over 1.5 70.36% (-1.27)
Under 1.5 29.64% (+1.27)
Over 2.5 45.8% (-2.35)
Under 2.5 54.2% (+2.35)
Over 3.5 25.57% (-2.76)
Under 3.5 74.43% (+2.77)
Over 4.5 14.1% (-2.39)
Under 4.5 85.9% (+2.39)

First Half Winner

Lesotho 18.97%
Draw 48.74%
Kenya 32.3%

Team To Score First

Lesotho 34.18% (-0.11)
No Goal 8.94% (+0.29)
Kenya 56.88% (-0.18)

Corners

Over 8 9.82%
Equal 8 3.97%
Under 8 86.21%
Over 9 7.3%
Equal 9 2.53%
Under 9 90.18%
Over 10.5 5.64%
Under 10.5 94.36%

Lesotho Goals

Over 1.5 26.3% (-1.19)
Under 1.5 73.7% (+1.19)
Over 2.5 8.56% (-1.10)
Under 2.5 91.44% (+1.10)
Over 3.5 2.37% (-0.63)
Under 3.5 97.63% (+0.62)

Kenya Goals

Over 0.5 74.66% (-0.47)
Under 0.5 25.34% (+0.47)
Over 1.5 41.7% (-1.54)
Under 1.5 58.3% (+1.54)
Over 2.5 18.6% (-1.65)
Under 2.5 81.4% (+1.66)
Over 3.5 6.64% (-1.13)
Under 3.5 93.36% (+1.13)

Score analysis

Lesotho 26.58%
Draw 26.53%
Kenya 46.86%
Lesotho
1-0 @ 8.36% (+0.45)
2-1 @ 6.22% (+0.13)
2-0 @ 4.26% (+0.21)
3-1 @ 2.27% (-0.09)
3-2 @ 1.72% (-0.22)
3-0 @ 1.43% (+0.05)
Other @ 2.32% (-0.56)
Total : 26.58%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.16% (+0.53)
0-0 @ 8.94% (+0.29)
2-2 @ 4.61% (-0.16)
Other @ 0.05% (-0.07)
Total : 26.53%
Kenya
0-1 @ 12.31% (+0.51)
1-2 @ 8.63% (+0.17)
0-2 @ 8.14% (+0.33)
1-3 @ 4.58% (-0.13)
0-3 @ 3.96% (+0.09)
2-3 @ 2.65% (-0.27)
Other @ 6.59% (-1.07)
Total : 46.86%