Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kenya win with a probability of 46.86%. A draw had a probability of 26.71% and a win for Lesotho had a probability of 26.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kenya win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.95%) and 2-0 (8.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.13%) , while for a Lesotho win it was 0-1 (7.95%).