Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Gameweek 1
Sep 25, 2026 5.00pm
3
1
HT : 3 1
FT Stade Amahoro
  • Abeddy Biramahire 2' goal
  • Leroy Mickels 33' goal
  • Bonheur Mugisha 34' yellowcard
  • Jojea Kwizera 40' yellowcard
  • Joy-Lance Mickels 44' goal
  • Innocent Nshuti 76' yellowcard
  • goal Sylvanus Nimely 38'
  • yellowcard Ayouba Kosiah 48'
  • redcard Kpah Sherman 61'

Rwanda vs Liberia - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Rwanda

All competitions

Liberia

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rwanda win with a probability of 50.54%. A draw had a probability of 26.13% and a win for Liberia had a probability of 23.34%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rwanda win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.09%) and 2-1 (8.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.28%) , while for a Liberia win it was 0-1 (8.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.

Result

Rwanda 50.54% ▲ (+0.04)
Draw 26.13%
Liberia 23.34% ▼ (-0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

40.08% ▲ (+0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 67.76% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 1.5 32.24% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 2.5 42.73% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 2.5 57.27% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 3.5 22.22% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 3.5 77.78% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 4.5 12.67% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 4.5 87.33% ▼ (-0.02)

First Half Winner

Rwanda 41.35%
Draw 45.37%
Liberia 13.28%

Team To Score First

Rwanda 66.74% ▲ (+0.01)
No Goal 10.42% ▼ (-0.02)
Liberia 22.84% ▲ (+0.02)

Corners

Over 8 27.48%
Equal 8 10.85%
Under 8 61.67%
Over 9 18.92%
Equal 9 8.56%
Under 9 72.52%
Over 10.5 12.64%
Under 10.5 87.36%

Rwanda Goals

Over 1.5 42.62% ▲ (+0.06)
Under 1.5 57.38% ▼ (-0.06)
Over 2.5 19.28% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 2.5 80.72% ▼ (-0.05)
Over 3.5 7.3% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 3.5 92.7% ▼ (-0.02)

Liberia Goals

Over 0.5 53.05% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 0.5 46.95% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 1.5 21.13% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 1.5 78.87% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 2.5 7.27% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 2.5 92.73% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 3.5 2.08% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 3.5 97.92% ▲ (+0.02)

Score analysis

Rwanda 50.54%
Draw 26.12%
Liberia 23.33%
Rwanda
1-0 @ 13.61% ▼ (-0.01)
2-0 @ 10.09% ▼ (-0.01)
2-1 @ 8.36% ▲ (+0.02)
3-0 @ 5.7% ▲ (+0.01)
3-1 @ 4.08%
3-2 @ 1.58%
Other @ 7.12% ▲ (+0.03)
Total : 50.54%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.28%
0-0 @ 10.42% ▼ (-0.02)
2-2 @ 3.62% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 26.12%
Liberia
0-1 @ 8.2% ▼ (-0.02)
1-2 @ 4.99%
0-2 @ 3.67% ▼ (-0.03)
1-3 @ 1.84% ▼ (-0.02)
0-3 @ 1.46%
2-3 @ 1.27%
Other @ 1.9% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 23.33%