Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Gameweek 3
Nov 13, 2026 7.00pm
Stade 26 Mars

Mali vs Rwanda - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Mali

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 8.00pm
Mali 3 - 1 Cape Verde

Rwanda

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 5.00pm
Rwanda 3 - 1 Liberia

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Mali win with a probability of 60.53%. A draw has a probability of 23.03% and a win for Rwanda has a probability of 16.41%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (11.46%) and 2-1 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.93%) , while for a Rwanda win it is 0-1 (5.51%).

Result

Mali 60.53%
Draw 23.03%
Rwanda 16.41% ▲ (+0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

45.4%

Goals

Over 1.5 73.51% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 1.5 26.49% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 2.5 48.79%
Under 2.5 51.21%
Over 3.5 27.25%
Under 3.5 72.75%
Over 4.5 16.55%
Under 4.5 83.45%

First Half Winner

Mali 48.04%
Draw 40.69%
Rwanda 11.26%

Team To Score First

Mali 69.43%
No Goal 7.73%
Rwanda 22.84%

Corners

Over 8 27.13%
Equal 8 10.51%
Under 8 62.36%
Over 9 18.85%
Equal 9 8.29%
Under 9 72.87%
Over 10.5 12.76%
Under 10.5 87.24%

Mali Goals

Over 1.5 52.84% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 1.5 47.16% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 2.5 27.03% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 2.5 72.97% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 3.5 10.91%
Under 3.5 89.09%

Rwanda Goals

Over 0.5 49.51% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 0.5 50.49% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 1.5 17.94% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 1.5 82.06% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 2.5 4.9% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 2.5 95.1% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 1.24% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 3.5 98.76% ▼ (-0.01)

Score analysis

Mali 60.53%
Draw 23.04%
Rwanda 16.42%
Mali
1-0 @ 13.24% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 11.46%
2-1 @ 9.4%
3-0 @ 7.15%
3-1 @ 5.73%
3-2 @ 2.65% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 10.9%
Total : 60.53%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.93%
0-0 @ 7.73%
2-2 @ 3.78%
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 23.04%
Rwanda
0-1 @ 5.51% ▲ (+0.01)
1-2 @ 4.3%
0-2 @ 2.31% ▲ (+0.02)
1-3 @ 1.2%
2-3 @ 1.17%
Other @ 1.23% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 16.42%

Head to Head

World Cup Qualifying - Africa
Nov 11, 2021 4.00pm
0
3
HT : 0 2
FT
  • Djihad Bizimana 7' redcard
  • Emmanuel Imanishimwe 72' yellowcard
  • goal Moussa Djenepo 19'
  • goal Ibrahima Kone 21'
  • yellowcard Ibrahima Kone 48'
  • yellowcard Mohamed Camara 70'
  • goal Kalifa Coulibaly 87'
  • yellowcard Kalifa Coulibaly 88'
World Cup Qualifying - Africa
Sep 1, 2021 8.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Adama Traore 19' goal
  • Lassana Coulibaly 35' yellowcard
  • Hamari Traore 54' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Yannick Mukunzi 17'