Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Gameweek 2
Sep 29, 2026 2.00pm
Free State Toyota Stadium

Lesotho vs Morocco - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Lesotho

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 4.00pm
Niger 2 - 1 Lesotho

Morocco

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 8.00pm
Morocco 2 - 0 Gabon

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Morocco win with a probability of 76.45%. A draw has a probability of 17.15% and a win for Lesotho has a probability of 6.43%.

The most likely scoreline for a Morocco win is 0-2 with a probability of 16.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (16.27%) and 0-3 (11.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 0-0 (8.3%) , while for a Lesotho win it is 1-0 (3.49%).

Result

Lesotho 6.43% ▼ (-0.08)
Draw 17.15% ▼ (-0.25)
Morocco 76.45% ▲ (+0.36)

Both Teams to Score: 

31.6% ▲ (+0.21)

Goals

Over 1.5 71.98% ▲ (+0.52)
Under 1.5 28.02% ▼ (-0.52)
Over 2.5 47.65% ▲ (+0.65)
Under 2.5 52.3% ▼ (-0.71)
Over 3.5 27% ▲ (+0.61)
Under 3.5 73% ▼ (-0.60)
Over 4.5 19.78% ▲ (+0.55)
Under 4.5 80.22% ▼ (-0.55)

Lesotho Goals

Over 1.5 6.03%
Under 1.5 93.97%
Over 2.5 0.88%
Under 2.5 99.12%
Over 3.5 0.11%
Under 3.5 99.89%

Morocco Goals

Over 0.5 87.31% ▲ (+0.29)
Under 0.5 12.69% ▼ (-0.29)
Over 1.5 62.3% ▲ (+0.60)
Under 1.5 37.7% ▼ (-0.60)
Over 2.5 36.5% ▲ (+0.68)
Under 2.5 63.5% ▼ (-0.69)
Over 3.5 17.99% ▲ (+0.51)
Under 3.5 82.01% ▼ (-0.51)

Score analysis

Lesotho 6.43%
Draw 17.15%
Morocco 76.46%
Lesotho
1-0 @ 3.49% ▼ (-0.05)
2-1 @ 1.51% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 6.43%
Draw
0-0 @ 8.3% ▼ (-0.19)
1-1 @ 7% ▼ (-0.06)
2-2 @ 1.65%
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 17.15%
Morocco
0-2 @ 16.57% ▼ (-0.09)
0-1 @ 16.27% ▼ (-0.25)
0-3 @ 11.74% ▲ (+0.09)
1-2 @ 7.32%
1-3 @ 5.34% ▲ (+0.06)
2-3 @ 1.24% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 17.98% ▲ (+0.52)
Total : 76.46%

Head to Head

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Nov 18, 2024 7.00pm
7
0
HT : 5 0
FT Stade d'Honneur d'Oujda
  • Brahim Diaz 5' goal
  • Brahim Diaz 15' goal
  • Soufiane Rahimi 37' goal
  • Brahim Diaz 42' goal
  • Soufiane Rahimi 45'+2' goal
  • Youssef En-Nesyri 68' goal
  • Ismael Saibari 70' goal
  • yellowcard Rethabile Rasethuntsa 25'
  • yellowcard Sekhoane Moerane 45'+1'
  • yellowcard Thato Malakia Sefoli 56'
  • yellowcard Sera Motebang 90'+3'
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Sep 9, 2024 8.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Orlando Stadium
  • Sera Motebang 81' yellowcard
  • Tsepo Toloane 90'+1' yellowcard
  • goal Brahim Diaz 90'+3'