Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Gameweek 2
Sep 29, 2026 2.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 1
FT Free State Toyota Stadium
  • goal Brahim Díaz 45'
  • yellowcard Oussama Targhalline 73'
  • goal Azzedine Ounahi 82'
  • yellowcard Soufiane Rahimi 85'

Lesotho vs Morocco - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Lesotho

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 4.00pm
Niger 2 - 1 Lesotho

Morocco

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 8.00pm
Morocco 2 - 0 Gabon

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morocco win with a probability of 76.6%. A draw had a probability of 16.8% and a win for Lesotho had a probability of 6.56%.

The most likely scoreline for a Morocco win was 0-2 with a probability of 16.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (15.69%) and 0-3 (11.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (7.92%) , while for a Lesotho win it was 1-0 (3.51%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 16.2% likelihood.

Result

Lesotho 6.56% ▲ (+0.10)
Draw 16.8%
Morocco 76.6% ▼ (-0.11)

Both Teams to Score: 

32% ▲ (+0.25)

Goals

Over 1.5 72.82% ▲ (+0.14)
Under 1.5 27.18% ▼ (-0.15)
Over 2.5 48.8% ▲ (+0.15)
Under 2.5 51.2% ▼ (-0.15)
Over 3.5 28% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 3.5 72% ▼ (-0.10)
Over 4.5 20.73% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 4.5 79.27% ▼ (-0.05)

Lesotho Goals

Over 1.5 6.13% ▲ (+0.10)
Under 1.5 93.87% ▼ (-0.10)
Over 2.5 0.89%
Under 2.5 99.11%
Over 3.5 0.11%
Under 3.5 99.89%

Morocco Goals

Over 0.5 87.52% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 0.5 12.48% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 1.5 63.01% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 1.5 36.99% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 2.5 37.53% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 62.47% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 18.96% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 3.5 81.04% ▼ (-0.02)

Score analysis

Lesotho 6.55%
Draw 16.8%
Morocco 76.59%
Lesotho
1-0 @ 3.51% ▲ (+0.03)
2-1 @ 1.57% ▲ (+0.04)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 6.55%
Draw
0-0 @ 7.92% ▼ (-0.09)
1-1 @ 7.02% ▲ (+0.06)
2-2 @ 1.66% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 16.8%
Morocco
0-2 @ 16.24% ▼ (-0.09)
0-1 @ 15.69% ▼ (-0.09)
0-3 @ 11.78% ▼ (-0.04)
1-2 @ 7.33% ▲ (+0.05)
1-3 @ 5.37% ▲ (+0.04)
2-3 @ 1.23% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 18.95% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 76.59%

Head to Head

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Nov 18, 2024 7.00pm
7
0
HT : 5 0
FT Stade d'Honneur d'Oujda
  • Brahim Diaz 5' goal
  • Brahim Diaz 15' goal
  • Soufiane Rahimi 37' goal
  • Brahim Diaz 42' goal
  • Soufiane Rahimi 45'+2' goal
  • Youssef En-Nesyri 68' goal
  • Ismael Saibari 70' goal
  • yellowcard Rethabile Rasethuntsa 25'
  • yellowcard Sekhoane Moerane 45'+1'
  • yellowcard Thato Malakia Sefoli 56'
  • yellowcard Sera Motebang 90'+3'
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Sep 9, 2024 8.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Orlando Stadium
  • Sera Motebang 81' yellowcard
  • Tsepo Toloane 90'+1' yellowcard
  • goal Brahim Diaz 90'+3'