Australian A-League | 1st Leg

May 17, 2025 at 10.35am UK

Melbourne Rectangular Stadium

Victory
0 - 1
Auckland FC

(Melbourne Victory win 2-1 on aggregate)

Jackson (85')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Rogerson (64')
Francois (60')

Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Auckland FC.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Last Game: Western Sydney 1-2 Victory
Saturday, May 10 at 10.35am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Auckland FC

All competitions

Last Game: Western Utd 4-2 Auckland FC
Saturday, May 3 at 9am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 46.88%. A win for Auckland FC had a probability of 28.99% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.96%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Auckland FC win was 1-2 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.

Result
Melbourne Victory	Draw	Auckland FC
46.88% ( 0.1)	24.12% ( 0.06)	28.99% ( -0.16)

Both teams to score 58% (

-0.31)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.88% (

-0.36)

44.12% (

0.36)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.5% (

-0.35)

66.5% (

0.36)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.03% (

-0.1)

18.96% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.51% (

-0.17)

50.49% (

0.17)

Auckland FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.58% (

-0.29)

28.42% (

0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.83% (

-0.37)

64.17% (

0.37)

Score Analysis

Melbourne Victory 46.88%

Auckland FC 28.99%

Draw 24.12%

Melbourne Victory	Draw	Auckland FC
2-1 @ 9.37% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.96% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 7.45% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 5.19% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.13% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.27% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.16% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.72% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.36% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.28% Total : 46.88%	1-1 @ 11.27% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.9% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 5.39% ( 0.09) 3-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.12%	1-2 @ 7.09% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 6.78% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 4.27% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.97% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 2.47% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.79% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.69% Total : 28.99%