Adelaide United
Brisbane Roar
Central Coast Mariners
Macarthur
Melbourne City
Melbourne Victory
Newcastle Jets
Perth Glory
Sydney FC
Wellington Phoenix
Western Sydney Wanderers
Western United
Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League | 1st Leg
May 17, 2025 at 10.35am UK
Melbourne Rectangular Stadium

Victory
0 - 1
Auckland FC


Jackson (85')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Rogerson (64')
Francois (60')
Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Auckland FC.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions
Last Game: Western Sydney 1-2 Victory
Saturday, May 10 at 10.35am in Australian A-League

Auckland FC

All competitions
Last Game: Western Utd 4-2 Auckland FC
Saturday, May 3 at 9am in Australian A-League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 46.88%. A win for Auckland FC had a probability of 28.99% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.96%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Auckland FC win was 1-2 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.

Result
Melbourne VictoryDrawAuckland FC
46.88% (0.098000000000006 0.1)24.12% (0.058 0.06)28.99% (-0.157 -0.16)
Both teams to score 58% (-0.311 -0.31)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.88% (-0.362 -0.36)44.12% (0.363 0.36)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.5% (-0.354 -0.35)66.5% (0.355 0.36)
Melbourne Victory Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.03% (-0.10499999999999 -0.1)18.96% (0.106 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.51% (-0.173 -0.17)50.49% (0.174 0.17)
Auckland FC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.58% (-0.29000000000001 -0.29)28.42% (0.292 0.29)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.83% (-0.369 -0.37)64.17% (0.37 0.37)
Score Analysis
    Melbourne Victory 46.88%
    Auckland FC 28.99%
    Draw 24.12%
Melbourne VictoryDrawAuckland FC
2-1 @ 9.37% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-0 @ 8.96% (0.111 0.11)
2-0 @ 7.45% (0.068 0.07)
3-1 @ 5.19% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.13% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
3-2 @ 3.27% (-0.034 -0.03)
4-1 @ 2.16% (-0.012 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.72% (0.004 0)
4-2 @ 1.36% (-0.019 -0.02)
Other @ 3.28%
Total : 46.88%
1-1 @ 11.27% (0.049999999999999 0.05)
2-2 @ 5.9% (-0.042 -0.04)
0-0 @ 5.39% (0.085 0.09)
3-3 @ 1.37% (-0.026 -0.03)
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 24.12%
1-2 @ 7.09% (-0.028 -0.03)
0-1 @ 6.78% (0.052 0.05)
0-2 @ 4.27% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
1-3 @ 2.97% (-0.036 -0.04)
2-3 @ 2.47% (-0.039 -0.04)
0-3 @ 1.79% (-0.015 -0.02)
1-4 @ 0.94% (-0.019 -0.02)
Other @ 2.69%
Total : 28.99%

Head to Head
Apr 19, 2025 8am
Gameweek 27
Victory
0-2
Auckland FC
Verstraete (53'), May (89')
Elliot (59'), Sakai (79'), Francois (90+5')
Jan 1, 2025 4am
Gameweek 11
Auckland FC
0-0
Victory
Verstraete (66')