Australian A-League

May 10, 2025 at 10.35am UK

Spotless Stadium

Western Sydney
1 - 2
Victory

Sapsford (23')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Bos (7'), Machach (42')
Inserra (4'), Arzani (84')

Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Western Sydney Wanderers and Melbourne Victory.

Form, Standings, Stats

Western Sydney Wanderers

All competitions

Last Game: Macarthur 1-3 Western Sydney
Saturday, May 3 at 10.35am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Last Game: Victory 1-1 Newcastle Jets
Sunday, May 4 at 8am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 51.05%. A win for Western Sydney Wanderers had a probability of 27.6% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.25%) and 0-2 (6.23%). The likeliest Western Sydney Wanderers win was 2-1 (6.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Melbourne Victory in this match.

Result
Western Sydney Wanderers	Draw	Melbourne Victory
27.6% ( -0.73)	21.34% ( 0.21)	51.05% ( 0.52)

Both teams to score 67.03% (

-1.45)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

68.21% (

-1.63)

31.79% (

1.63)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

46.68% (

-1.93)

53.31% (

1.93)

Western Sydney Wanderers Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.96% (

-1.29)

23.03% (

1.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.15% (

-1.93)

56.85% (

1.93)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.1% (

-0.42)

12.9% (

0.42)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.68% (

-0.86)

39.32% (

0.86)

Score Analysis

Western Sydney Wanderers 27.6%

Melbourne Victory 51.05%

Draw 21.34%

Western Sydney Wanderers	Draw	Melbourne Victory
2-1 @ 6.56% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 4.36% ( 0.22) 3-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.19) 3-1 @ 3.21% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 3.2% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 1.57% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.21% ( -0.12) 4-1 @ 1.18% ( -0.1) Other @ 3.03% Total : 27.6%	1-1 @ 8.93% ( 0.32) 2-2 @ 6.72% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 2.97% ( 0.26) 3-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.17) Other @ 0.48% Total : 21.34%	1-2 @ 9.15% ( 0.18) 1-3 @ 6.25% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 6.23% ( 0.36) 0-1 @ 6.09% ( 0.44) 2-3 @ 4.59% ( -0.16) 0-3 @ 4.25% ( 0.18) 1-4 @ 3.2% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 2.35% ( -0.12) 0-4 @ 2.18% ( 0.06) 1-5 @ 1.31% ( -0.04) 3-4 @ 1.15% ( -0.11) 2-5 @ 0.96% ( -0.07) Other @ 3.36% Total : 51.05%