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Australian A-League | Gameweek 26
Apr 11, 2025 at 10.35am UK
Melbourne Rectangular Stadium
Brisbane Roar

Melbourne City
3 - 2
Brisbane Roar

Tilio (57'), Caputo (61'), Ferreyra (85')
Ugarkovic (69'), Ferreyra (86'), Leckie (90+2'), Atkinson (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Abubakar (9'), Jelacic (69')
Ludwik (50'), Bility (90+2'), Klein (90')
Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Melbourne City and Brisbane Roar.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne City

All competitions
Last Game: Melbourne City 1-0 Central Coast
Saturday, April 5 at 7am in Australian A-League

Brisbane Roar

All competitions
Last Game: Brisbane Roar 1-5 Macarthur
Friday, April 4 at 9.35am in Australian A-League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 63.78%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 16.44%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.9%) and 1-0 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.21%), while for a Brisbane Roar win it was 1-2 (4.58%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.

Result
Melbourne CityDrawBrisbane Roar
63.78% (-0.70399999999999 -0.7)19.78% (0.249 0.25)16.44% (0.456 0.46)
Both teams to score 55.68% (0.171 0.17)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.86% (-0.276 -0.28)39.14% (0.278 0.28)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.53% (-0.29 -0.29)61.47% (0.292 0.29)
Melbourne City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.36% (-0.27 -0.27)11.64% (0.271 0.27)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.32% (-0.583 -0.58)36.67% (0.583 0.58)
Brisbane Roar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.01% (0.387 0.39)36.99% (-0.384 -0.38)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.23% (0.384 0.38)73.77% (-0.383 -0.38)
Score Analysis
    Melbourne City 63.78%
    Brisbane Roar 16.44%
    Draw 19.78%
Melbourne CityDrawBrisbane Roar
2-0 @ 9.96% (-0.082999999999998 -0.08)
2-1 @ 9.9% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
1-0 @ 9.26% (0.02 0.02)
3-0 @ 7.14% (-0.14 -0.14)
3-1 @ 7.1% (-0.064 -0.06)
4-0 @ 3.84% (-0.118 -0.12)
4-1 @ 3.82% (-0.076 -0.08)
3-2 @ 3.53% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.9% (-0.018 -0.02)
5-0 @ 1.65% (-0.069 -0.07)
5-1 @ 1.64% (-0.051 -0.05)
Other @ 4.05%
Total : 63.78%
1-1 @ 9.21% (0.116 0.12)
2-2 @ 4.93% (0.06 0.06)
0-0 @ 4.31% (0.056 0.06)
3-3 @ 1.17% (0.014 0.01)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 19.78%
1-2 @ 4.58% (0.105 0.11)
0-1 @ 4.28% (0.1 0.1)
0-2 @ 2.13% (0.071 0.07)
2-3 @ 1.63% (0.037 0.04)
1-3 @ 1.52% (0.051 0.05)
Other @ 2.29%
Total : 16.44%

How you voted: Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar

Melbourne City
80.0%
Draw
20.0%
Brisbane Roar
0.0%
5
Head to Head
Jan 11, 2025 6am
Gameweek 13
Melbourne City
1-0
Brisbane Roar
Mazzeo (65')
Atkinson (61'), Behich (90+2'), Beach (90+3')

Gianetti (58'), O'Shea (90+3')
Dec 6, 2024 8.35am
Gameweek 7
Brisbane Roar
1-4
Melbourne City
O'Shea (77' pen.)
Van Der Saag (54')
Kuen (1'), Cohen (18', 70'), Ugarkovic (82')
Feb 10, 2024 7am
Gameweek 16
Brisbane Roar
5-1
Melbourne City
Trewin (2'), Waddingham (30', 46'), O'Shea (33'), Jelacic (39')
Hore (10'), Freke (88')
Antonis (73')
Galloway (62')
Dec 28, 2023 8.45am
Gameweek 10
Melbourne City
8-1
Brisbane Roar
Good (10'), MacLaren (14', 34', 58'), Natel (48', 70'), Arslan (76'), Mazzeo (85')
Sakhi (45+3')
Brownlie (62')
Mar 12, 2023 4am
Gameweek 20
Melbourne City
2-1
Brisbane Roar
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