Australian A-League | Gameweek 26

Apr 11, 2025 at 10.35am UK

Melbourne Rectangular Stadium

Melbourne City
3 - 2
Brisbane Roar

Tilio (57'), Caputo (61'), Ferreyra (85')
Ugarkovic (69'), Ferreyra (86'), Leckie (90+2'), Atkinson (90+4')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Abubakar (9'), Jelacic (69')
Ludwik (50'), Bility (90+2'), Klein (90')

Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Melbourne City and Brisbane Roar.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne City

All competitions

Last Game: Melbourne City 1-0 Central Coast
Saturday, April 5 at 7am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Brisbane Roar

All competitions

Last Game: Brisbane Roar 1-5 Macarthur
Friday, April 4 at 9.35am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 63.78%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 16.44%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.9%) and 1-0 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.21%), while for a Brisbane Roar win it was 1-2 (4.58%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.

Result
Melbourne City	Draw	Brisbane Roar
63.78% ( -0.7)	19.78% ( 0.25)	16.44% ( 0.46)

Both teams to score 55.68% (

0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.86% (

-0.28)

39.14% (

0.28)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.53% (

-0.29)

61.47% (

0.29)

Melbourne City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.36% (

-0.27)

11.64% (

0.27)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

63.32% (

-0.58)

36.67% (

0.58)

Brisbane Roar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.01% (

0.39)

36.99% (

-0.38)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.23% (

0.38)

73.77% (

-0.38)

Score Analysis

Melbourne City 63.78%

Brisbane Roar 16.44%

Draw 19.78%

Melbourne City	Draw	Brisbane Roar
2-0 @ 9.96% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 9.9% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 9.26% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 7.14% ( -0.14) 3-1 @ 7.1% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 3.84% ( -0.12) 4-1 @ 3.82% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 3.53% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.9% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 1.65% ( -0.07) 5-1 @ 1.64% ( -0.05) Other @ 4.05% Total : 63.78%	1-1 @ 9.21% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 4.93% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 4.31% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.17% Total : 19.78%	1-2 @ 4.58% ( 0.11) 0-1 @ 4.28% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 2.13% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.29% Total : 16.44%