Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 47.94%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 26.03% and a draw had a probability of 26.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.34%) and 0-2 (8.85%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 1-0 (8.05%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.