Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Auckland FC win with a probability of 50.3%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 25.62% and a draw had a probability of 24.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Auckland FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.75%) and 2-0 (7.51%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 0-1 (6.68%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.