Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 44.97%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 30.78% and a draw had a probability of 24.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.89%) and 2-0 (6.38%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (7.39%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.