Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 47.12%. A win for Perth Glory had a probability of 29.63% and a draw had a probability of 23.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.31%) and 0-2 (7%). The likeliest Perth Glory win was 2-1 (7.01%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.56%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.