Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ilves win with a probability of 38.34%. A win for Gnistan had a probability of 36.71% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ilves win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.26%) and 0-2 (6%). The likeliest Gnistan win was 2-1 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ilves would win this match.