Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks: Player props, injury report and prediction | NBA

Oklahoma City Thunder bring a perfect four-wins-from-four start, but not injured wing Jalen Williams, to American Airlines Center on Wednesday, when they face a Dallas Mavericks side only three games into life under new head coach Dusty May.

Oklahoma City have won the last three meetings between these two sides, and Dallas arrive having spent the summer tearing up their own roster and front office after last season's Luka Doncic fallout.

Oklahoma City Thunder's form and outlook before facing Dallas Mavericks

Form Guide

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-0 · No. 2 seed, Western Conference

Last 4 (2026-27 regular season)

W W W W

111.3PPG

100.8Opp PPG

112.4Off. rating

102.0Def. rating

Dallas Mavericks

2-2 · No. 7 seed, Western Conference

Last 4 (2026-27 regular season)

L W L W

112.3PPG

118.3Opp PPG

111.7Off. rating

114.9Def. rating

Mark Daigneault's side have not lost since the opening week, reeling off four straight wins, the most recent a tight finish over Phoenix on the second night of a back-to-back.

They have managed that without Jalen Williams, an All-Star-calibre wing lost for the bulk of the season to a dislocated ankle and fractured fibula sustained against the Clippers.

Cason Wallace is out on a similarly long timeline after shoulder surgery, so a defence already doing the heavy lifting is absorbing two rotation losses at once and still finding a way to stay unbeaten.

Williams is not expected back until around the start of March, by the Thunder's own estimate, meaning Oklahoma City could be without their second-most productive offensive weapon for roughly half the season.

Neither side is on a back-to-back for this one, with both teams working on a single day of rest after Monday's results.

Dallas, by contrast, have alternated results through the opening fortnight of the new season calendar, a pattern that already includes a home loss in which their defence was picked apart.

The bigger story in Dallas runs through the front office, where Masai Ujiri took charge in May, fired Jason Kidd, and installed first-time NBA head coach Dusty May alongside a reshaped roster built around Kyrie Irving and Cooper Flagg.

One report called it the biggest overhaul of the franchise since Mark Cuban bought the club back in 2000, which underlines just how much has changed in Dallas across a single off-season.

The gap that jumps out is defensive, with Oklahoma City conceding far less than any other team in the league while Dallas have been picked apart on their own floor already this season.

Dallas do have the better pure scoring and ball-movement numbers of the two sides, built on Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving generating quick, clean looks, but neither figure yet reflects a game against a defence of this calibre.

Oklahoma City also protect the ball considerably better, a trait that tends to matter more against a team still settling into a new coaching staff's sets.

What's the injury picture for Thunder vs Mavericks?

Oklahoma City's rotation has thinned out fast, with both Williams and Wallace now facing surgery recoveries that will keep them out for months rather than weeks.

Caruso, Topic and Sorber all carry game-time calls for Wednesday, while Holmgren's situation needs a last check before tip-off after conflicting reports either side of the Phoenix game.

Caruso lasted only nine minutes against Phoenix before his ankle forced him off, managing nine points in that short burst, which hints at the kind of role he could play here if he is passed fit.

Dallas are missing three forwards for roughly another week in Martin, Biberovic and Aldama, which leaves Dusty May light on frontcourt depth behind Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington.

Marshall, de Larrea and Lively carry their own uncertainty, and a club already adjusting to a new coaching staff cannot easily absorb more than one of those names actually sitting out.

Thunder vs Mavericks: the matchups that could decide it

Key Matchups

Engine vs engine

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

OKC

VS

Kyrie Irving

DAL

27.3PPG

4.3RPG

 

19.5PPG

3.7RPG

3.8APG

47.8%FG%

 

3.7APG

58.3%FG%

Gilgeous-Alexander has carried an even heavier scoring load since Williams went down, while Irving is still finding his rhythm in his first month back from a torn ACL.

Battle of the boards

Isaiah Hartenstein

OKC

VS

Daniel Gafford

DAL

9.3PPG

8.5RPG

 

6.5PPG

6.0RPG

2.3APG

53.3%FG%

 

2.7APG

57.1%FG%

Hartenstein's rebounding and passing out of the post anchor Oklahoma City's defence, and with Dallas already short of frontcourt depth, winning the glass here matters more than usual.

Second-year sparks

Cooper Flagg

DAL

VS

Jared McCain

OKC

25.0PPG

5.3RPG

 

11.3PPG

1.5RPG

6.3APG

60.9%FG%

 

1.8APG

40.5%FG%

Flagg has started his second season as Dallas's focal point, but a trip to face the league's stingiest defence is a far sharper test than anything he has faced so far.

Gilgeous-Alexander's workload is the clearest lever in this game, since Oklahoma City have no obvious second shot-creator with Williams out for the long haul.

Dallas need Flagg and Irving to create enough easy offence of their own to survive a defence that has not let anyone past 104 points yet this season.

Player props to watch as Thunder visit Mavericks

Player Props to Watch

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC

PointsOver 26.5

27.3Season PPG

16.3Pre-season (3 GP)

4GP played

He has taken on an even bigger share of the offence since Williams went down, and Dallas have yet to show they can slow a lead scorer of this level.

Cooper FlaggDAL

PointsUnder 24.5

25.0Season PPG

19.7Pre-season (3 GP)

2GP played

His hot start has come against two sides nowhere near as disciplined defensively as Oklahoma City, who have conceded the fewest points in the league this season.

Kyrie IrvingDAL

PointsUnder 18.5

19.5Season PPG

17.5Pre-season (2 GP)

2GP played

Irving is still building rhythm this early in his comeback from knee surgery, and this is the toughest scoring defence he has faced since returning.

How Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks have fared head-to-head

Oklahoma City have won three straight in this series, all of them by double figures bar the most recent, a low-scoring win in Dallas back in March.

Dallas's last win in the fixture came almost two years ago, before either side underwent the roster and coaching changes that have reshaped both rosters since.

None of the four meetings featured the current Dallas coaching staff or Flagg, so this history offers context more than a guide to how Wednesday will actually play out.

Our prediction for Thunder vs Mavericks

Oklahoma City's defence, already the best in the league this season, looks the single biggest factor in this matchup, and it is hard to see Dallas's offence solving it on the road to a win.

A fifth straight win over this opponent looks the likeliest outcome, even with two rotation pieces missing for the visitors, and an early sign of how the Western Conference standings could shake out over the opening weeks of the new campaign.