Preview: Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder: Player props, injury report and prediction | NBA

Denver Nuggets begin their 2026-27 season away to Oklahoma City Thunder, who are playing their home opener at Paycom Center in the early hours of Friday, in a rematch of last season's four-game series that the hosts won 3-1.

The Thunder are 1-0 after winning at San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday, whereas this is Denver's first appearance on the NBA schedule.

How are Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder shaping up?

Form Guide

Denver Nuggets

54-28 · 3rd in the West

Last 5 (2026 play-offs vs. Timberwolves)

L L L W L

122.1PPG

116.9Opp PPG

121.2Off. rating

116.0Def. rating

Oklahoma City Thunder

64-18 · 1st in the West

Last 5 (2026 West finals and 2026-27 opener vs. Spurs)

L W L L W

119.0PPG

107.9Opp PPG

117.6Off. rating

106.5Def. rating

Oklahoma City won 34 of their 42 home games last season and outscored visitors by 11.5 points a game at Paycom Center, which is the strongest case for treating them as heavy favourites here.

Their season ended with a seven-game defeat to the Spurs in the Western Conference finals, and the response on Tuesday was a 116-104 win in which Chet Holmgren blocked four shots and was the main defender on Victor Wembanyama.

The summer was about payroll, as Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins were traded, Cason Wallace agreed a five-year extension and Isaiah Hartenstein re-signed, which leaves rookies Aday Mara and Bennett Stirtz to absorb some of the minutes.

Denver won 54 games and finished third in the West, but their season ended in the first round, where they took only one of their last five games against Minnesota.

Away from home they won 26 of 41, and 73% of their road games cleared 230 combined points.

Preseason offers little to separate them, since Denver went 3-2 while Oklahoma City went 1-4 with most of their regulars playing limited minutes.

Denver have had five days off since a 121-106 preseason win at the Lakers on 16 October, whereas the Thunder are playing their second game in three nights.

Denver's attack rated higher per 100 possessions, but Oklahoma City's defence was the stronger unit by a wider margin, which explains why the visitors are underdogs by more than eight points.

Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder team news and rotations

Denver are without Julian Strawther, who was diagnosed with a left knee sprain on 16 October and will be re-evaluated in six weeks, while Spencer Jones is listed as questionable with a hamstring problem after taking part in practice on Sunday.

Denver are expected to start Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokic, the group that won 18 of the 23 games it played together last season.

DeMar DeRozan, signed on a one-year minimum deal in September, is expected to lead a bench that now includes Marvin Bagley III, Tyus Jones and Alpha Diallo, after Peyton Watson, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jonas Valanciunas and Bruce Brown all left.

Oklahoma City list Nikola Topic with a back problem and Thomas Sorber with a knee injury as out, and Otega Oweh will miss the season after Achilles surgery, while the expected starters are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Wallace, Jalen Williams, Holmgren and Hartenstein, with Ajay Mitchell, who did not start on Tuesday, behind Gilgeous-Alexander on the depth chart.

Which matchups could decide Nuggets vs. Thunder?

Key Matchups · 2025-26 season stats

Center battle

Nikola Jokic

DEN

VS

Isaiah Hartenstein

OKC

27.7 v 9.2PPG

12.9 v 9.4RPG

10.7 v 3.5APG

56.9% v 62.2%FG%

Jokic's passing is the gap, as Hartenstein finishes efficiently but creates far less for his team-mates.

Point guards

Jamal Murray

DEN

VS

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

OKC

25.4 v 31.1PPG

7.1 v 6.6APG

48.3% v 55.3%FG%

43.5% v 38.6%3PT%

Gilgeous-Alexander scores more by more than five points a game, so Murray's outside shooting is how Denver keep pace in this pairing.

Power forwards

Aaron Gordon

DEN

VS

Chet Holmgren

OKC

16.2 v 17.1PPG

5.8 v 8.9RPG

49.7% v 55.7%FG%

38.9% v 36.2%3PT%

Holmgren has the edge on the glass and from the field, but Gordon played only 36 games last season, so his fitness matters as much as his form.

Jokic against Hartenstein is the headline at center, although Holmgren, who guarded Wembanyama on Tuesday, could move onto Jokic and leave Hartenstein to deal with Gordon instead.

In the backcourt, Murray faces Gilgeous-Alexander, who needed 27 shots to score 32 points on Tuesday, so Denver's best route to slowing him is to make each of those attempts difficult.

Best player props for Nuggets vs. Thunder

Player Props to Watch

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC

PointsOver 29.5

31.1Season PPG

322026-27 opener (1 GP)

68GP in 2025-26

With Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins gone, more of the scoring burden sits with him, and 27 shots on Tuesday showed he is happy to take it.

Nikola JokicDEN

AssistsOver 9.5

10.7Season APG

7.4Pre-season (5 GP)

65GP in 2025-26

He averaged only 20.9 minutes in the preseason, so the lower figure reflects workload rather than role, and a rebuilt bench leaves him as the main creator.

Aaron GordonDEN

PointsOver 14.5

16.2Season PPG

15.8Pre-season (4 GP)

36GP in 2025-26

He averaged roughly a point a minute in the preseason, which suggests a starter's role beside Jokic and Murray should clear this line.

All three props lean on 2025-26 averages plus whatever new-season sample exists, since Denver have not played a regular-season game and Oklahoma City have played one.

Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder head-to-head record

The first meeting on 1 February was the most comfortable of the three Oklahoma City wins, a 10-point victory in Denver that set the tone for a series the Thunder took 3-1.

Denver then lost 127-121 in overtime on 27 February and 129-126 on 9 March, both in Oklahoma City, so the two closest results came on this court.

Denver's only win was a 127-107 home result on 10 April, but Oklahoma City rested most of their regulars that night, so it says very little about this game.

Our Nuggets vs. Thunder prediction and best bets

Oklahoma City's home record and the gap between the two defences make them the pick to cover, even though Denver arrive rested and have the bigger scoring ceiling of the two sides in this fixture.

The total is harder to call, since Denver's road games ran high while Oklahoma City's home games rarely did, and the Thunder defence is likely to decide which pattern holds, particularly as Denver's rebuilt bench makes their scoring harder to project than it was a year ago.