Olympics: USA vs. Japan – prediction, team news, lineups
A place in the Olympic semi-finals will be on the line when USA Women go head-to-head with Japan Women in Saturday's clash at the Parc des Princes.
The Stars and Stripes topped their group with maximum points, while Japan collected six points from three games to seal their spot in the last eight.
Match preview
Emma Hayes has made an impressive start to her tenure as USA boss, having seen her side win five of her first six matches (D1), including three victories in the Olympic group stage.
The Stars and Stripes began their campaign with a commanding 3-0 win over Zambia, before they went on to claim a comprehensive 4-1 victory over Germany to secure a quarter-final spot with a game to play.
The USA then sealed top spot in Group B with a narrow 2-1 victory in Wednesday's clash against Australia thanks to goals from Trinity Rodman and Korbin Albert.
After winning all three group games, the USA will feel they have a real chance to win a fifth gold medal and their first since winning the women's football tournament in the 2012 Olympic competition.
USA will fancy their chances of getting the better of Japan, having won nine of their last 13 head-to-head meetings, including a 2-1 win in April's clash at SheBelieves Cup.
Japan are set to compete in the Olympic knockout rounds for the fifth time after they recovered from a losing start to finish in second spot in Group C.
After losing 2-1 to Spain in their tournament opener, Japan appeared to be on course to fall to another defeat in their second group game against Brazil, before they scored two stoppage-time goals to clinch a dramatic 2-1 victory.
Futoshi Ikeda's side went on to seal a quarter-final berth with a 3-1 win over Nigeria which came courtesy of first-half goals from Maika Hamano, Mina Tanaka and Hikaru Kitagawa.
Japan will be dreaming of winning their first Olympic medal since picking up silver in 2012 when they successfully navigated their way to the final before being beaten by the USA.
However, they will have to see off the USA if they are to have any chance of clinching a medal this time around, and that may prove to be a tricky task, having gone over 12 years without a win over the Stars and Stripes.
USA Olympic Games form: WWW
USA form (all competitions): WWDWWW
Japan Olympic Games form: LWW
Japan form (all competitions): WWWLWW
USA vs. Japan odds
As we enter the knockout stages of the tournament, we're bound to see some very interesting matches and this is one of them for sure. That being said, USA Women are clearly the expected winners with a 60.00% win probability, while Japan Women have a 20.00% win probability.
USA Women Odds: 4/6 – 60.00% probability
Draw Odds: 16/5 – 23.80% probability
Japan Women Odds: 4/1 – 20.00% probability
If we look at some of the most popular goals markets, we can see that under 2.5 total goals is priced at 7/5, which is the same as a 41.70% probability. Meanwhile, the bookies clearly expect goals in this match since over 2.5 total goals has odds of 4/7 and a 63.60% probability.
On top of this, if you expect goals and see both teams joining the fun, both teams to score is also priced at 4/7 and a 63.60% probability.
Team News
USA will have to assess Tierna Davidson’s fitness after she was forced to miss the win over Australia with a knock she sustained in the second group game.
Forward Jaedyn Shaw is also a doubt for Saturday's fixture, having been forced to miss all three group matches due to a leg injury.
After seeing her side edge out Australia on Wednesday, Hayes could decide to select an unchanged starting lineup for the quarter-final.
As for Japan, they are unable to call upon Manchester City’s Risa Shimizu, who sustained a tournament-ending knee injury in the opening game against Spain.
Roma’s Moeka Minami is likely to return to the lineup to feature alongside her fellow central defenders Saki Kumagai and Hana Takahashi.
Ikeda could also be tempted to recall Manchester United’s Hinata Miyazawa and Liverpool’s Fuka Nagano.
USA possible starting lineup: Naeher; Fox, Girma, Sonnet, Dunn; Horan, Coffey, Lavelle; Rodman, Smith, Swanson
Japan possible starting lineup: Yamashita; Moriya, Takahashi, Kumagai, Minami, Kitagawa; Miyazawa, Hasegawa, Nagano; Hamano, Tanaka
We say: USA 2-1 Japan
The USA have barely put a foot wrong since Hayes took over the reins earlier this summer, and while we expect Japan to provide a tough test, we think the Stars and Stripes will do enough to claim a narrow victory.
