Ecuador2 - 1Venezuela
Form, Standings, Stats
Tuesday, November 19 at 11pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Saturday, January 18 at 8pm in International Friendlies
We said: Ecuador 2-1 Venezuela
Venezuela may have got the better of Ecuador in last year's Copa America, but that contest took place in a neutral venue in the United States. Their opponents will have home advantage for Friday's contest, and we think that could be crucial given the fact that the visitors have lost 13 of their last 15 away qualifiers. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 65.05%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Venezuela had a probability of 13.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.4%) and 2-1 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.06%), while for a Venezuela win it was 0-1 (5.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Ecuador in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Ecuador.
| Result | ||
| Ecuador | Draw | Venezuela |
65.05% ( -0.3) | 21.61% ( 0.2) | 13.34% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 42.36% ( -0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
