World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Africa | Group Stage

Nov 16, 2023 at 1pm UK

Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium

Burundi
3 - 2
Gambia

Bigirimana (31'), Nsabiyumva (35'), Abdallah (75')
Mvuyekure (72'), Mussa (90+2')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Colley (45+4'), Colley (90+8' pen.)
Colley (37'), Barry (61')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Africa clash between Burundi and Gambia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Burundi

All competitions

Last Game: Cameroon 3-0 Burundi
Tuesday, September 12 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Madagascar	3	3	7
2	Nigeria	3	0	6
3	Guinea	3	1	4
4	Burundi	3	-4	0

Gambia

All competitions

Last Game: Gambia 2-2 Congo
Sunday, September 10 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Senegal	0	0	0
2	Cameroon	0	0	0
3	Guinea	0	0	0
4	Gambia	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gambia win with a probability of 36.22%. A win for Burundi had a probability of 33.81% and a draw had a probability of 30%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gambia win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.23%) and 0-2 (7.06%). The likeliest Burundi win was 1-0 (12.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.

Result
Burundi	Draw	Gambia
33.81% ( -0.02)	29.97% ( -0.01)	36.22% ( 0.04)

Both teams to score 42.17% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

34.96% (

0.04)

65.04% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

16.08% (

0.03)

83.92% (

-0.02)

Burundi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.12% (

35.88% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.35%

72.65% (

Gambia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.77% (

0.04)

34.23% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.07% (

0.05)

70.93% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Burundi 33.8%

Gambia 36.22%

Draw 29.96%

Burundi	Draw	Gambia
1-0 @ 12.58% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 6.92% ( -0) 2-0 @ 6.45% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 2.36% 3-0 @ 2.21% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.27% ( 0) Other @ 2.02% Total : 33.8%	1-1 @ 13.49% 0-0 @ 12.28% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 3.71% ( 0) Other @ 0.49% Total : 29.96%	0-1 @ 13.16% 1-2 @ 7.23% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 7.06% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.59% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.52% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.33% ( 0) Other @ 2.33% Total : 36.22%