Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 54.3%. A draw had a probability of 26.05% and a win for Uzbekistan had a probability of 19.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.63%) and 1-2 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.66%) , while for a Uzbekistan win it was 1-0 (7.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.