CONCACAF Nations League | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg

Nov 19, 2024 at 1am UK

CityPark

USA
4 - 2
Jamaica

(USA win 5-2 on aggregate)

Pulisic (14', 14', 33'), Bernard (33' og.), Pepi (42', 42'), Weah (56', 56')

FT(HT: 6-0)

Gray (53', 53', 68', 68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's CONCACAF Nations League clash between USA and Jamaica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

USA

All competitions

CONCACAF Nations League

Last Game: Jamaica 0-1 USA
Friday, November 15 at 1am in CONCACAF Nations League

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Uruguay	3	8	9
2	Panama	3	1	6
3	USA	3	0	3
4	Bolivia	3	-9	0

Jamaica

All competitions

CONCACAF Nations League

Last Game: Jamaica 0-1 USA
Friday, November 15 at 1am in CONCACAF Nations League

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Venezuela	3	5	9
2	Ecuador	3	1	4
3	Mexico	3	0	4
4	Jamaica	3	-6	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 58.94%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Jamaica had a probability of 17.48%.

The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.73%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.1%), while for a Jamaica win it was 0-1 (6.45%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that USA would win this match.

Result
USA	Draw	Jamaica
58.94% ( -0.03)	23.58% ( -0.02)	17.48% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 45.74% (

0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.52% (

0.16)

53.48% (

-0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25% (

0.13)

75% (

-0.13)

USA Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.11% (

0.05)

17.89% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.32% (

0.08)

48.68% (

-0.07)

Jamaica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.71% (

0.16)

44.29% (

-0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.64% (

0.13)

80.36% (

-0.12)

Score Analysis

USA 58.93%

Jamaica 17.48%

Draw 23.58%

USA	Draw	Jamaica
1-0 @ 13.63% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 11.73% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.56% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 6.73% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.48% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2.9% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.36% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.23% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 1% ( 0) 4-2 @ 0.96% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.35% Total : 58.93%	1-1 @ 11.1% 0-0 @ 7.92% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 3.89% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.66% Total : 23.58%	0-1 @ 6.45% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.52% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 2.63% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.6% Total : 17.48%