Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Louis City win with a probability of 43.37%. A win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 32.73% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Louis City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.72%) and 2-0 (6.11%). The likeliest Houston Dynamo win was 1-2 (7.37%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.