Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 37.3%. A win for Louisville City had a probability of 37.17% and a draw had a probability of 25.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.17%) and 2-0 (5.48%). The likeliest Louisville City win was 1-2 (8.43%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.