Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtar Donetsk win with a probability of 61.32%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Vorskla Poltava had a probability of 17.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtar Donetsk win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.39%) and 1-2 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.01%), while for a Vorskla Poltava win it was 1-0 (5.04%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shakhtar Donetsk would win this match.