Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Obolon Kyiv win with a probability of 36.5%. A win for Vorskla Poltava had a probability of 36.27% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Obolon Kyiv win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.97%) and 0-2 (6.48%). The likeliest Vorskla Poltava win was 1-0 (10.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.