Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dinamo Zagreb win with a probability of 49.16%. A win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 29.98% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dinamo Zagreb win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.08%) and 2-0 (5.26%). The likeliest Shakhtar Donetsk win was 1-2 (6.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Dinamo Zagreb would win this match.