Moreirense kick off the new year with a trip to the Estadio Joao Cardoso where they square off against Tondela and will be aiming to make it two wins from two for the first time this season.
Both sides are currently level on points and separated by one place just above the automatic relegation places and this makes for an exciting and nerve-racking contest.
Match preview
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Tondela turned in a performance of the highest quality as they booked their first-ever place in the quarter-finals of the Taca de Portugal courtesy of a 3-1 win over Estoril Praia on December 21.
However, they were sent crashing back down to earth in their subsequent outing as they fell to a 3-0 defeat at the hands of an in-form Gil Vicente side last Tuesday.
Following an uneventful first half, the Gilistas upped the ante after the interval as goals from Murilo de Souza, Matheus Bueno and Boubacar Hanne saw the hosts round off the year with a humbling defeat.
Tondela have now lost four games on the trot — their second-longest losing streak this season after losing five straight earlier in the season — conceding 11 goals and scoring two since November's 4-2 win over Maritimo.
Pako Ayestaran's men have won four and lost 11 of their 15 Primeira Liga matches this season to collect 12 points, which sees them sit in 16th place in the table, level on points with Monday's visitors.
A major source of their poor performance so far has been their struggles in defence, a key area needing strengthening as they have now shipped the joint-most goals in the divisions with 32.
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Moreirense, on the other hand, gave their fans something to cheer for heading into the New Year as they broke their winless run when they saw off Estoril Praia 1-0 last Tuesday.
In an entertaining contest at the Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Brazilian forward Rafael Martins came up trumps for the hosts as he scored the only goal of the game despite his side seeing just 33% of the ball possession.
Prior to that, Moreirense, who were dumped out of the Taca de Portugal in their last outing, were on a run of seven games without a win in the Primeira Liga, stretching back to a 2-1 win over Arouca on September 25.
Os verdes e brancos, who await their first victory on the road this season, have managed just two wins from their opening 15 games, while conceding 24 goals and scoring 15 so far.
While Lito Vidigal's side will look to put an end to this poor away run, next up is an opposing side who they have failed to defeat in their last four attempts, losing twice and picking up two draws since their last win back in 2019.
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Team News
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Ayestaran remains unable to call upon the services of Italian midfielder Simone Muratore after the Atalanta loanee picked up an injury in October's game against Belenenses.
Joining him on the club's injury table is Portuguese youngster Jota Goncalves, who has been out of action since sustaining a severe knee injury back in September.
As for Moreirense, Dutch defender Godfried Frimpong remains out of contention as he continues his spell on the sidelines after picking up an injury back in September.
Fellow defender Pablo Santos misses out with an injury that has allowed him just one game since joining the club on loan from Braga last August.
Rafael Martins broke a 10-match goal drought with his winner against Estoril Praia last time out and we expect the 32-year-old to lead the line once again.
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Trigueira; Khacef, Quaresma, Sagnan, Almeida; Dantas, Undabarrena, Pedro; Agra, Dadashov, Anjos
Moreirense possible starting lineup:
Kewin; Rosic, Vitoria, Jorge; Conte, Jambor, Mane, Soares, Santos, Martins. Silva
We say: Tondela 1-1 Moreirense
After an underwhelming first half of the season, Tondela and Moreirense find themselves scrambling for points at the wrong end of the table. Both sides head into the game in similar form, winning just one in their last five games across all competitions. With that being said, we predict the spoils will be shared between the two evenly-matched sides.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 37.08%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 36.21% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.15%) and 0-2 (6.44%). The likeliest Tondela win was 1-0 (9.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.
