Fresh off the back of progressing into the semi-finals of the Taca de Portugal, Tondela welcome Gil Vicente to the Estadio Joao Cardoso in round 16 of the Primeira Liga on Tuesday.
The visitors, meanwhile, will head into the game aiming to get one over the hosts after failing to taste victory in both home and away fixtures last season.
Match preview
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Tondela were left empty-handed once again in the Portuguese Primeira Liga as they fell to a narrow 1-0 defeat at the hands of Pacos de Ferreira two Saturdays ago.
With nothing to separate the sides heading into the final 10 minutes, Brazilian forward Denilson kept his cool under pressure as he converted his 81st-minute penalty with aplomb to hand the visitors their fifth consecutive victory over the hosts.
Tondela have now lost each of their last three league games, including a disappointing 5-2 defeat against Vitoria de Guimaraes on December 11, while they have managed just three points from their last six outings.
With four wins and 10 defeats in 14 games, CDT Auriverdes are currently 15th in the Primeira Liga standings, one point above Famalicao in the relegation playoff spot, and this has been owing to their defensive frailties as they have shipped 29 goals so far.
However, Tondela head into Tuesday's game fresh off the back of sealing their first-ever place in the quarter-finals of the Taca de Portugal when they claimed a 3-1 comeback win over Estoril Praia courtesy of strikes from Tiago Dantas, Juan Manuel Boselli and Daniel dos Anjos.
Manager Pako Ayestaran, who has been at the helm since August 2020, will now hope the historic cup victory can serve as a springboard for a fine run of form as they look to steer clear of the relegation places in the coming weeks.
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Meanwhile, Gil Vicente's fine form in the Primeira Liga took a halt last time out when they fell to a 3-0 defeat against reigning champions Sporting Lisbon at the Estadio Cidade de Barcelos.
In a frenetic contest which saw both sides pick up red cards in the opening 22 minutes, the Gilistas put on a fine defensive performance in the first half, but the floodgates were opened after the break as Nuno Santos, Goncalo Inacio and Daniel Braganca scored to hand the visitors all three points.
Prior to that, Ricardo Soares's men were on a two-game winning streak, seeing off Famalicao and Pacos de Ferreira, and had avoided defeat in five straight league games, claiming three wins and two draws since November's 1-0 loss against Braga.
With 20 points from 15 games, Gil Vicente, who finished 11th in the league standings last season, are currently eighth on the log, five points behind Estoril Praia in the final Conference League qualification spot.
While they will look to strengthen their position in the top half of the table, next up is an opposing side who they have failed to defeat in three of the last four league encounters between the teams.
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Team News
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Tondela will have to make do with the absence of Jota Goncalves after the Portuguese youngster picked up a severe knee injury back in September.
However, they will be boosted by the return of Jose Hernando, who sat out the game against Pacos de Ferreira through suspension after picking up a red card against Vitoria de Guimaraes on December 11.
Gil Vicente, on the other hand, will take to the pitch without the services of Joao Afonso as the Brazilian midfielder continues his lengthy spell on the sides after picking up a severe injury back in April.
Fellow midfielder Kanya Fujimoto is also out of contention for the Gilistas after the 22-year-old picked up a straight red 12 minutes into the game against Sporting Lisbon last time out.
In his absence, Brazilian midfielder Matheus Bueno could come into the fold for what will be just his second starting appearance of the season.
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Trigueira; Khacef, Quaresma, Sagnan, Almeida; Dantas, Undabarrena, Pedro; Agra, Dadashov, Anjos
Gil Vicente possible starting lineup:
Frelih; Hackman, Silva, Fernandes, Talocha; Aburjania, Pedrinho, Bueno; Murilo, Navarro, Lino
We say: Tondela 0-2 Gil Vicente
Tondela picked up a morale-boosting cup win last time out and will look to carry that momentum into the league where they have struggled for form. However, they face a Gil Vicente side who have been solid away from home so far and are unbeaten in their last five away games. We are backing Gil Vicente to come out on top on Tuesday.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 54.54%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 20.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.49%) and 1-2 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.65%), while for a Tondela win it was 1-0 (7.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.
