Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Thun win with a probability of 48.72%. A win for Basel had a probability of 30.11% and a draw had a probability of 21.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Thun win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.75%) and 1-0 (5.21%). The likeliest Basel win was 1-2 (6.75%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.