Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 49.97%. A win for FC Winterthur had a probability of 28.16% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.7%) and 0-2 (6.33%). The likeliest FC Winterthur win was 2-1 (6.69%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.28%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.