Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugano win with a probability of 44.02%. A win for Basel had a probability of 34.14% and a draw had a probability of 21.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugano win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.44%) and 1-0 (5.03%). The likeliest Basel win was 1-2 (7.54%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.59%).