Swiss Super League Gameweek 38
May 17, 2026 3.30pm
Stadio di Cornaredo

Lugano vs Basel - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Lugano

All competitions
Swiss Super League
Last game
May 10, 2026 1.00pm
Lugano 1 - 2 St Gallen
Goals scored
51
Top scorer
Kevin Behrens

Basel

All competitions
Swiss Super League
Last game
May 10, 2026 3.30pm
Young Boys 3 - 0 Basel
Goals scored
54
Top scorer
Benie Traore

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Lugano win with a probability of 43.96%. A win for Basel has a probability of 34.07% and a draw has a probability of 21.98%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lugano win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 3-1 (5.35%) and 1-0 (5.26%). The likeliest Basel win is 1-2 (7.89%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (8.77%).

Result

Lugano 43.96% (+0.01)
Draw 21.98%
Basel 34.07% (-0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

68.89% (-0.05)

Goals

Over 1.5 87.12% (-0.04)
Under 1.5 12.88% (+0.05)
Over 2.5 69.53% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 30.47% (+0.03)
Over 3.5 47.66% (-0.08)
Under 3.5 52.34% (+0.08)
Over 4.5 31.04% (-0.08)
Under 4.5 68.96% (+0.07)

First Half Winner

Lugano 33.01% (+0.01)
Draw 38.12% (-0.02)
Basel 28.87% (+0.02)

Team To Score First

Lugano 48.94% (+0.01)
No Goal 3.04%
Basel 48.02% (-0.01)

Corners

Over 8 66.98% (+0.03)
Equal 8 10.66%
Under 8 22.37% (-0.01)
Over 9 55.23% (+0.01)
Equal 9 11.74%
Under 9 33.02% (-0.02)
Over 10.5 43.46% (+0.03)
Under 10.5 56.54% (-0.03)

Lugano Goals

Over 1.5 52.95% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 47.05% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 27.98% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 72.02% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 12.66% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 87.34% (+0.02)

Basel Goals

Over 0.5 71.61% (-0.05)
Under 0.5 28.39% (+0.06)
Over 1.5 44.1% (-0.06)
Under 1.5 55.9% (+0.06)
Over 2.5 20.99% (-0.06)
Under 2.5 79.01% (+0.06)
Over 3.5 7.97% (-0.04)
Under 3.5 92.03% (+0.04)

Score analysis

Lugano 43.96%
Draw 21.97%
Basel 34.07%
Lugano
2-1 @ 8.81% (+0.01)
3-1 @ 5.35% (-0.02)
1-0 @ 5.26%
2-0 @ 5.06%
3-2 @ 4.45% (-0.01)
3-0 @ 3.01% (+0.02)
Other @ 12.02% (-0.01)
Total : 43.96%
Draw
1-1 @ 8.77% (+0.01)
2-2 @ 7.01%
0-0 @ 3.04%
3-3 @ 2.51% (-0.02)
Other @ 0.64%
Total : 21.97%
Basel
1-2 @ 7.89% (+0.01)
0-1 @ 4.58%
1-3 @ 4.25% (-0.01)
2-3 @ 4.09% (-0.01)
0-2 @ 3.76% (-0.02)
0-3 @ 2.17% (+0.01)
Other @ 7.33% (-0.04)
Total : 34.07%

Head to Head

Swiss Super League
Feb 15, 2026 3.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT St. Jakob-Park
  • Bénie Traoré 30' yellowcard
  • Xherdan Shaqiri   62' yellowcard
  • Giacomo Koloto 66' yellowcard
  • Marin Soticek 66' yellowcard
  • Keigo Tsunemoto  66' yellowcard
  • Moussa Cissé 88' yellowcard
  • Julien Duranville 88' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Georgios Koutsias 15'
  • yellowcard João Carbone 46'
  • yellowcard Hicham Mahou 63'
  • yellowcard Daniel Dos Santos 63'
  • goal Georgios Koutsias 64'
  • yellowcard Zachary Brault-Guillard 84'
Swiss Super League
Nov 9, 2025 1.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Swiss Super League
Aug 10, 2025 3.30pm
3
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Swiss Super League Gameweek 35
May 10, 2025 7.30pm
2
5
HT : 1 1
FT Stadio di Cornaredo
  • Uran Bislimi 2' goal
  • Renato Steffen 59' yellowcard
  • Zachary Brault-Guillard 64' yellowcard
  • Anto Grgic 69' goal
  • Mattia Zanotti 75' yellowcard
  • goal Albian Ajeti 4'
  • yellowcard Albian Ajeti 33'
  • redcard Albian Ajeti 42'
  • goal Xherdan Shaqiri 48'
  • goal Xherdan Shaqiri 51'
  • goal Xherdan Shaqiri 57'
  • goal Leo Leroy 60'
Swiss Super League Gameweek 31
Apr 6, 2025 3.30pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT St. Jakob-Park (Basel)
  • Xherdan Shaqiri 12' yellowcard
  • Albian Ajeti 33' yellowcard
  • Metinho 39' yellowcard
  • Xherdan Shaqiri 63' goal
  • Marin Soticek 82' goal
  • yellowcard Lars Lukas Mai 45'+2'
  • yellowcard Uran Bislimi 87'
Swiss Super League Gameweek 19
Jan 19, 2025 3.30pm
2
2
HT : 1 1
FT Stadio di Cornaredo
  • Anto Grgic 45'+2' goal
  • Albian Hajdari 54' goal
  • Renato Steffen 57' yellowcard
  • Zachary Brault-Guillard 90'+3' yellowcard
  • goal Kevin Carlos 24'
  • yellowcard Joe Mendes 28'
  • yellowcard Leo Leroy 36'
  • yellowcard Dominik Schmid 42'
  • yellowcard Moussa Cisse 74'
  • goal Xherdan Shaqiri 87'