Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Gallen win with a probability of 42.02%. A win for Basel had a probability of 33.85% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Gallen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.13%) and 0-2 (6.28%). The likeliest Basel win was 2-1 (7.94%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.