Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luzern win with a probability of 38.98%. A win for St Gallen had a probability of 36.1% and a draw had a probability of 24.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luzern win was 2-1 with a probability of 7.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.84%) and 2-0 (5.36%). The likeliest St Gallen win was 0-1 (8.1%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.