Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugano win with a probability of 48.13%. A win for FC Zurich had a probability of 28.72% and a draw had a probability of 23.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugano win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.51%) and 0-2 (6.82%). The likeliest FC Zurich win was 2-1 (7%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.