Swiss Super League | Gameweek 38

May 24, 2025 at 5pm UK

St. Jakob-Park (Basel)

Basel
4 - 0
Luzern

Ajeti (18'), Otele (40'), Kade (55'), Traore (69')
Kade (49'), Adjei Adjetey (63')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Rrudhani (29'), Dorn (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Swiss Super League clash between Basel and Luzern, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Basel

All competitions

Last Game: Young Boys 6-2 Basel
Sunday, May 18 at 1.15pm in Swiss Super League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Luzern

All competitions

Last Game: Luzern 3-4 Servette
Sunday, May 18 at 3.30pm in Swiss Super League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 62.03%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for Luzern had a probability of 18.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.08%) and 3-1 (7.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.4%), while for a Luzern win it was 1-2 (5%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.

Result
Basel	Draw	Luzern
62.03% ( 0.71)	19.27% ( -0.26)	18.69% ( -0.45)

Both teams to score 62.5% (

0.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

67.5% (

0.54)

32.5% (

-0.54)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

45.86% (

0.63)

54.14% (

-0.63)

Basel Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.85% (

0.33)

10.14% (

-0.34)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.64% (

0.76)

33.35% (

-0.76)

Luzern Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.56% (

-0.11)

30.44% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.35% (

-0.13)

66.65% (

0.13)

Score Analysis

Basel 62.03%

Luzern 18.69%

Draw 19.27%

Basel	Draw	Luzern
2-1 @ 9.62% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 8.08% ( -0) 3-1 @ 7.34% ( 0.08) 1-0 @ 7.07% ( -0.1) 3-0 @ 6.17% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 4.36% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 4.2% ( 0.11) 4-0 @ 3.53% ( 0.1) 4-2 @ 2.5% ( 0.06) 5-1 @ 1.92% ( 0.08) 5-0 @ 1.62% ( 0.07) 5-2 @ 1.14% ( 0.04) 4-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.52% Total : 62.03%	1-1 @ 8.4% ( -0.15) 2-2 @ 5.72% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 3.09% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 1.73% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.33% Total : 19.27%	1-2 @ 5% ( -0.1) 0-1 @ 3.67% ( -0.12) 2-3 @ 2.27% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.18% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 1.98% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.59% Total : 18.69%