Basel
Swiss Super League | Gameweek 38
May 24, 2025 at 5pm UK
St. Jakob-Park (Basel)
Luzern

Basel
4 - 0
Luzern

Ajeti (18'), Otele (40'), Kade (55'), Traore (69')
Kade (49'), Adjei Adjetey (63')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Rrudhani (29'), Dorn (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Swiss Super League clash between Basel and Luzern, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Basel

All competitions
Last Game: Young Boys 6-2 Basel
Sunday, May 18 at 1.15pm in Swiss Super League

Luzern

All competitions
Last Game: Luzern 3-4 Servette
Sunday, May 18 at 3.30pm in Swiss Super League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 62.03%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for Luzern had a probability of 18.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.08%) and 3-1 (7.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.4%), while for a Luzern win it was 1-2 (5%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.

Result
BaselDrawLuzern
62.03% (0.71 0.71)19.27% (-0.262 -0.26)18.69% (-0.45 -0.45)
Both teams to score 62.5% (0.133 0.13)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.5% (0.542 0.54)32.5% (-0.544 -0.54)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
45.86% (0.626 0.63)54.14% (-0.628 -0.63)
Basel Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.85% (0.333 0.33)10.14% (-0.335 -0.34)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.64% (0.759 0.76)33.35% (-0.762 -0.76)
Luzern Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.56% (-0.11200000000001 -0.11)30.44% (0.11 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.35% (-0.133 -0.13)66.65% (0.131 0.13)
Score Analysis
    Basel 62.03%
    Luzern 18.69%
    Draw 19.27%
BaselDrawLuzern
2-1 @ 9.62% (-0.032 -0.03)
2-0 @ 8.08% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-1 @ 7.34% (0.08 0.08)
1-0 @ 7.07% (-0.104 -0.1)
3-0 @ 6.17% (0.085 0.09)
3-2 @ 4.36% (0.034 0.03)
4-1 @ 4.2% (0.105 0.11)
4-0 @ 3.53% (0.099 0.1)
4-2 @ 2.5% (0.055 0.06)
5-1 @ 1.92% (0.075 0.08)
5-0 @ 1.62% (0.068 0.07)
5-2 @ 1.14% (0.041 0.04)
4-3 @ 0.99% (0.019 0.02)
Other @ 3.52%
Total : 62.03%
1-1 @ 8.4% (-0.15 -0.15)
2-2 @ 5.72% (-0.036 -0.04)
0-0 @ 3.09% (-0.091 -0.09)
3-3 @ 1.73% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 0.33%
Total : 19.27%
1-2 @ 5% (-0.104 -0.1)
0-1 @ 3.67% (-0.119 -0.12)
2-3 @ 2.27% (-0.022 -0.02)
0-2 @ 2.18% (-0.078 -0.08)
1-3 @ 1.98% (-0.047 -0.05)
Other @ 3.59%
Total : 18.69%

How you voted: Basel vs Luzern

Basel
100%
Draw
0.0%
Luzern
0.0%
7
Head to Head
Mar 9, 2025 3.30pm
Gameweek 27
Luzern
1-1
Basel
Knezevic (78')
Traore (41')
Leon Barisic (31'), Mendes (76')
Feb 6, 2025 7.30pm
Gameweek 22
Basel
2-1
Luzern
Shaqiri (4' pen., 57' pen.)
Avdullahu (51'), Mendes (89'), Baro (90+3')
Winkler (1')
Knezevic (58'), Kadak (81')
Cigaņiks (90+4')
Sep 29, 2024 3.30pm
Gameweek 8
Luzern
1-0
Basel
Jaquez (78')
Beloko (48'), Ottiger (87')

Vouilloz (45+4'), Avdullahu (56'), Fink (85')
May 5, 2024 1.15pm
Gameweek 34
Basel
1-1
Luzern
Barry (52')
Barry (15'), Avdullahu (43'), Kade (54'), Ruegg (86')
Meyer (46')
Dorn (62'), Jasari (69'), Winkler (78')
Apr 21, 2024 3.30pm
Gameweek 33
Luzern
1-1
Basel
Grbic (70')
Jasari (78')
Kade (2')
Kade (41')
rhs 2.0
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
 
Regular Season
1Basel33187872324061
2Servette33151085243955
3Young Boys33158104942753
4Luzern331491061511051
5LuganoLugano33147124847149
6Lausanne SportLausanne33138125244847
7St GallenSt Gallen331211104643347
8FC Zurich33138124448-447
9Sion3399154151-1036
10Grasshopper ZurichGrasshopper33712143546-1133
11Yverdon Sport3389163357-2433
12FC WinterthurWinterthur3386193261-2930
> Swiss Super League Full Table


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