Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 46.58%. A win for Lausanne Sport had a probability of 30.39% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.34%) and 0-2 (6.56%). The likeliest Lausanne Sport win was 2-1 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.